Kaus discusses the quickening pace of conventional wisdom and the less-than 24 hour news cycle:
"The Expectations of Expectations Game: Drezner detects a surge of media favoritism for Edwards and argues this means Edwards will be the story out of Iowa even if he comes in second:Yeah. It's called "bullshit." Call me when Super Tuesday is here.
If Kerry wins, he's going to get a bump, no doubt--and New Hampshire becomes an interesting question. But if Edwards performs better than either Gephardt or Dean at the caucus, reporters are going to lock in on him as the story of the week.
Wait, didn't Ryan Lizza just tell us that "All Kerry needs to do is come in second place and he will be the story Monday Night." But that was four days ago! As Lizza now acknowledges:
The cycle of expectations moves fast here.
Within 48 hours, pundits have both blessed Edwards as the late-closing "it" candidate and dismissed the surge as too little too late
So Edwards is now set up to actually surprise people again. ... Someone should try to come up with a name for this faster cycle of expectations."